Coffee starts the week with a sharp rise on the exchanges following volatility driven by funds and a supply situation that remains tight
Coffee prices opened the week higher on international exchanges this Monday (6), as the market resumed trading following the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Gains were seen in both Arabica (New York) and Robusta (London) markets, amidst the continued volatility that characterized the market last week.
The market began the day with the September 2026 Arabica coffee contract trading at 313.05 U.S. cents per pound, up 1,185 points. The December 2026 contract rose 1,200 points, quoted at 298.30 cents/lb.
On ICE Europe, the September 2026 Robusta coffee contract traded at US$ 3,870 per tonne, a gain of 154 points. The November 2026 contract rose 149 points to US$ 3,828 per tonne.
The market starts the week still reacting to the strong volatility observed in recent trading sessions. According to an analysis by Gustavo Matias of Matias Coffee Trading, the movement was driven primarily by the repositioning of investment funds, the activity of quantitative funds (CTAs), and position-adjustment trades—factors that significantly boosted trading volume and amplified price fluctuations.
The analyst notes that while market fundamentals remain supportive, they do not, in isolation, explain the magnitude of the price surges recorded last week. Delays in the Brazilian harvest, tight global stocks, inverted spreads, and weather uncertainties remain on investors' radar, but intensified fund activity was the decisive factor behind the recent volatility. The analysis further highlights that the September Arabica contract fluctuated by around 4,800 points over the past week, while Robusta also saw a sharp rise in value, reflecting increased participation by financial investors in the futures market.
In Brazil, the recovery in international prices came at a crucial time for the sector, coinciding with the progress of the harvest. According to Gustavo Matias, the price surge improved price formation in the physical market, benefiting producers who had not yet sold part of their crop and creating better conditions for negotiating futures contracts.
Despite the price recovery, the analyst notes that market participants continue to closely monitor actual production, export, and consumption figures. In his assessment, the market remains highly sensitive to fund activity and shifts in supply expectations, a dynamic likely to keep volatility high in upcoming sessions.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas