Soybean trading in the Brazilian physical market has recently gained momentum. According to Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), the increased activity is driven by the need to free up warehouse space for the 2025/26 harvest, which is already beginning to intensify in some producing regions.

According to Cepea, cooperatives and grain traders have been actively working with producers to facilitate the sale of remaining stocks from the last season. This logistical effort has resulted in smoother negotiations, but has also impacted prices in the domestic market.

With intensified sales and the prospect of abundant supply, soybean prices in Brazil are facing downward pressure. According to the institution's most recent bulletin, released this week, prices have been declining as the available volume increases and the market anticipates a large influx of product.

The scenario of abundance was reinforced by an update from Conab (National Supply Company), which revised the initial stock for the 2025/26 season to 10.73 million tons. This figure represents a 2.9% increase compared to the previous estimate and an impressive 48.4% above the volume observed in the same period last year.

National soybean production remains projected at a record level of 176.12 million tons, consolidating Brazil as the main global supplier of the grain. This level of supply, combined with high stocks, tends to maintain pressure on domestic prices over the coming months. For the production sector, the progress in commercialization is important to balance the logistical flow and avoid bottlenecks in storage. However, the drop in prices requires producers to pay attention to defining sales strategies, especially given the still high production costs in some regions.

Source: Agrolink