This Friday (4), the sugar market is trading higher on the London Stock Exchange, even without the reference of the New York Stock Exchange, closed due to the United States Independence Day holiday. The August/25 contract is trading at US$ 487.70 per ton, up 1.29%, while October/25 is up 1.72%, quoted at US$ 479.00 per ton. In an interview with Notícias Agrícolas, analyst Mauricio Muruci, from Safras & Mercado, explained that the recent advance is, to a large extent, a technical correction after the strong decline recorded throughout the week. Muruci also highlights that the market is paying attention to the occurrence of frost in producing areas in the Center-South of Brazil, recorded last week. However, he points out that the damage to sugarcane fields can only be accounted for after about eight days, which is starting to occur now, and could influence future price movements.

Despite the one-off increase, the sugar market remains under pressure in the long term. In recent weeks, global prices have fallen due to expectations of a record surplus in the 2025/26 season. According to a projection released this Monday by trader Czarnikow, the global surplus could reach 7.5 million tons, the largest in the last eight years. In addition, the USDA's semiannual report, released on May 22, indicated that global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to grow by 4.7%, reaching a record 189.318 million tons. Global ending stocks are also expected to increase, totaling 41.188 million tons, up 7.5% compared to the previous year, a scenario that will put pressure on prices in the medium term.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas